India is strong. But the world is unstable. Growth is continuing. But inflation risks are rising. Interest rates are steady. But global markets remain volatile. Demand is resilient. But supply chains are under stress.
RBI June 2026 statement highlights India’s GDP growth, inflation, repo rate, forex reserves and economic outlook.
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% Amid Global Uncertainty
The Indian economy continues to show resilience despite rising global uncertainty, supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, and volatile financial markets. In its June 2026 monetary policy statement, the Reserve Bank of India highlighted that India entered the current phase of global turbulence with stronger fundamentals than in previous crisis periods.
The Monetary Policy Committee met on June 3, 4 and 5, 2026, and unanimously decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent. The central bank also retained its neutral policy stance, signalling caution as inflation risks rise and growth faces external pressures.
The June 5, 2026 statement by Sanjay Malhotra, Governor, Reserve Bank of India, comes at a time when the global economy is facing serious uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions, disruptions in trade routes, supply-chain stress, volatile financial markets, high energy prices and cautious business sentiment have created a difficult environment for companies across sectors.
The Governor began with a direct warning about the global situation. He said, “Over the past few months, the global economy has been shaped by heightened uncertainty, disruptions to key trade routes and supply chains, increased market volatility, and cautious business sentiment.”
Sanjay Malhotra’s June 2026 statement gives both confidence and caution. India is resilient. Growth remains strong. Banks and NBFCs are healthy. Forex reserves are comfortable. Liquidity is being managed. Policy remains alert.
But risks are real. Global uncertainty is high. Supply chains are disrupted. Energy prices are elevated. Inflation may rise. Exporters face logistics costs. Capital flows may remain volatile. Weather risks may affect rural demand.
Here are seven key facts from the June statement on the Indian economy.
1. Repo Rate Remains Unchanged at 5.25%
The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent. As a result, the Standing Deposit Facility rate remains at 5.00 per cent, while the Marginal Standing Facility rate and Bank Rate remain at 5.50 per cent.
The decision reflects a careful balance. Inflation is still below the target level, but global energy prices and supply disruptions could push prices higher in the coming months. The RBI has chosen to wait for greater clarity before making any major policy move.
2. India’s GDP Growth Projected at 6.6% for 2026-27
The RBI projected real GDP growth for 2026-27 at 6.6 per cent. Quarterly growth is estimated at 6.6 per cent in Q1, 6.3 per cent in Q2, 6.5 per cent in Q3, and 6.8 per cent in Q4.
The Indian economy remains supported by domestic demand, services growth, government capital expenditure, and steady private consumption. Manufacturing and services continue to expand. However, global supply chain disruptions, high logistics costs, and weather-related risks could affect growth prospects.
3. Inflation Projected at 5.1% for 2026-27
CPI inflation is projected at 5.1 per cent for 2026-27. The RBI expects inflation to rise gradually, with Q1 inflation at 4.2 per cent, Q2 at 5.1 per cent, Q3 at 5.9 per cent, and Q4 at 5.4 per cent.
The statement noted that headline CPI inflation remained below target in March and April 2026, at 3.4 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively. But higher crude oil prices, input costs, commercial LPG prices, chemicals, metals, rubber, and plastic products may create inflationary pressure.
4. Global Energy Prices Pose a Major Risk
One of the biggest concerns for the economy is the sharp rise in global energy prices. The Indian crude oil basket averaged around US$110 per barrel during April-May 2026.
Higher crude prices can affect transport, manufacturing, logistics, and household budgets. The RBI noted that partial pass-through of global crude prices to domestic petrol and diesel prices had already started from May. This could increase costs for businesses and consumers.
5. Domestic Demand Remains Resilient
Despite global shocks, India’s domestic demand remains strong. Private consumption has remained steady, supported by discretionary spending. Fixed investment has also maintained momentum.
Urban consumption is expected to be supported by services sector growth, GST rationalisation, and stable employment conditions. However, rising inflation may reduce household purchasing power. Rural demand may also face pressure if the south-west monsoon remains below normal.
6. Forex Reserves Stand Strong at US$682.3 Billion
India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at US$682.3 billion as of May 29, 2026. The RBI said these reserves are healthy and adequate by standard reserve adequacy metrics. They provide about 11 months of import cover and equal 89.1 per cent of external debt.
The external sector continues to face risks from higher energy imports and global trade uncertainty. However, services exports, remittances, foreign direct investment, and policy measures are expected to support the balance of payments.
7. RBI Announces Measures to Attract Foreign Capital
The RBI announced several measures to attract foreign capital and strengthen India’s external position. These include expanding the universe of government securities under the Fully Accessible Route, increasing investment limits for NRIs and OCIs in listed equity instruments, and offering concessional forex swap facilities for external commercial borrowings by public sector undertakings.
The RBI also proposed restoring the time for realisation of export proceeds to nine months. These steps are expected to support capital inflows, exports, and the balance of payments.
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